Much-awaited ‘South Asia Policy’ by US President Donald Trump is finally out. While some would call it an old rhetoric repeated over and over again by the US in last seventeen years, for others it might be a change from beating about the bush to a non-nonsense approach soaked in American war-fatigue, eagerness to remain in the region with a sinning face.
Although President Trump did not even utter the names of China, Russia and Iran, it was quite clear from the formulation of what he described as ‘a whole new approach’, he wants to change the balance of power in South Asia, nullifying Russian and Iranian influence in Afghanistan, keeping China at bay and fixing Pakistan through deepening Indian role in Afghanistan.
Trump’s policy reset in South Asia identified three core American interests to be achieved through the new policy.
First, an honourable and enduring outcome worthy of the tremendous sacrifices, which the US has made in Afghanistan since 9/11.
Second, no rapid exit from Afghanistan, as the consequences it might bring are “both predictable and unacceptable”. He expressed his fear of a vacuum that such a hasty withdrawal would leave and which ‘would then be used by terrorists like al Qaeda and ISIS’. He conspicuously left out the Taliban from this formulation.
Third, stop the resurgence of safe havens in Pakistan that enable terrorists to threaten America. He linked these havens to Pakistan’s tense relations with India – a hint towards ‘havens’ in Pakistan, housing India-centric outfits, which might escalate the tensions between the two countries to the point of nuclear conflict – and with Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which he vowed to prevent from “coming into the hands of the terrorists”.
He went on to describe five pillars of the new strategy that included; first, a shift from time-based to conditions-based approach, ie, no dates to mark the beginning or end of military options – meaning thereby a completely open-ended approach that might last, well, forever! The term he used to describe this signified proactive action rather than reactive combat, “I will not say when we are going to attack, but attack we will.”
Second, all instruments of American power would be utilised in Afghanistan to achieve “successful outcome”. And the outcome he described had nothing to do with ‘winning hearts and mind’ or ‘strengthening democracy’ in Afghanistan. “We are not nation building again. We are killing terrorists.”
Third, and the most alarming for Pakistan, no more silence on Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond. Now that’s interesting. Once again, he did not include Taliban in his bracket of ‘terrorist organisations’. And spoke about ‘threats to the region and beyond’, not just America. Like it or not, this shall include those enjoying holidays while absconding or in house arrest or hiding behind philanthropic work or planning to launch political parties, while allegedly planning or supporting attacks in neighbouring India.
Before moving on to the next point of his strategy, Trump didn’t forget to remind us, “It is time for Pakistan to demonstrate its commitment to civilisation, order, and to peace.”
Fourth pillar of his strategy, further develop strategic partnership with India, while calling her ‘world’s largest democracy’, and ‘a key security and economic partner of the US’. While doing so, he didn’t miss being Trump. With a rather snarky remark, he said, “We appreciate India’s important contributions to stability in Afghanistan, but India makes billions of dollars in trade with the US.” He made a demand by saying “we want them to help us more with Afghanistan, especially in the area of economic assistance and development”. After hitting on our Achilles Heel – the nuclear arsenal – this was his second stroke at the point where it hurts us the most.
Further deepening the Indian role in Afghanistan, that too as a publicly announced and adopted policy, isn’t a tactic that Pakistan might have been expecting. But that wouldn’t actually mean the US would be going all out against Pakistan in the near future. They certainly need supply routes that only we could provide them on cheapest possible cost. Our geography might come to our rescue, but not for very long. It might not be as difficult for a superpower to devise alternatives, as we have thought.
Final pillar of Trump strategy, relaxed rules of engagement and purveyance of all ‘necessary tools’ needed to win that war. That signifies two important points. Firstly, troops surge – even after the recent 3,900 troops that Trump has sanctioned for Afghanistan just before announcing the South Asia Policy as per White House officials – would always be on the cards.
Secondly, his reference to lifting the restrictions means, as he described in next breath, expansion in authority for the US Army to target the “terrorists and criminal networks” wherever they might be hiding. The killers, he said, “need to know they have nowhere to hide, that no place is beyond the reach of American might and American arms”.
That might mean, beyond the borders of Afghanistan. Wherever they are. A rapid cleaning of Pakistan’s own soil, that means, is in necessary order. What if we don’t do it after such a public posturing by the US president? We, the honour-drunk Pakistanis, do not like to be nudged publicly. We would never do it if it appears to be an outcome of foreign dictation. Having spoken to senior security officials in the last couple of months, one thing is rather certain; they are convinced that America is direly in need of Pakistan, which is not the case vice versa. That might now be a problem after an unpredictable president has taken the charge of American policy.
It was, however, quite evident from his tone that Trump was in the know of what was wrong in Afghanistan, which was one of the major reasons why Afghanistan is where she is. “The government of Afghanistan must carry their share of the military, political, and economic burden. The American people expect to see real reforms, real progress, and real results. Our patience is not unlimited”.
As Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani puts it, “Pakistan can persist with denial and rhetoric or it can recognise the paradigm shift in US policy towards South Asia and plan realistically to deal with it. President Trump is unlikely to put up with ‘nothing wrong is happening here from our side’ type of arguments.”
But the question is, what will President Trump do if Pakistan is not seen doing what the US wants? Practically nothing.
Trump didn’t talk about economic sanctions. Indian role in Afghanistan, which might be a big threat for Pakistan, is already there to the utmost disliking of Pakistan. The State Department ‘clarification’ subsequent to the Trump speech on Monday night that Indian role would be limited to economic and development themes, further supports the view that nothing big is going to happen on that front.
The only ‘threat’ that might create ripples in Rawalpindi, is the one involving Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Touching it would mean the ultimate ‘nuking’ of the US-Pakistan relations, which the US doesn’t appear to opt so far. Besides some ego-massage of the sections of Afghan and Indian security communities, the Trump policy has nothing big, affecting Pakistan’s policies. Pakistan’s security elite is thoroughly convinced that “we are already changing our course”, the evidence of which is first-time-ever condemnation of Taliban attacks on the US forces and the offer made to the recent McCain and CentCom delegations that Pakistan is ready to allow American access to any point in Pakistan that they may suspect has terrorist sanctuaries. But then, we don’t want foreign boots on Pakistani ground. South Asia is an enigma Trump might get to know gradually.
Published in Daily Times, August 23rd 2017.
